明星资讯腾讯娱乐2018年12月11日 10:30:51
China Mobile, the world#39;s largest wireless carrier by subscribers, is feeling the pinch of increasing pressure from the Chinese government, which is striving to reduce the company#39;s dominance in China. 中国政府正努力削弱中国移动(China Mobile)在国内市场的主导地位,后者正日益感受到来自政府的压力。按用户数计算,中国移动是全球最大的电信运营商。The latest policy headwind is its talks with the other two state-controlled carriers China Unicom and China Telecom to set up a joint venture to build and manage telecommunications infrastructures in China. 中国移动面临的一项最新政策阻力是:该公司正与其他两家国有运营商中国联通(China Unicom)和中国电信(China Telecom)讨论组建一家合资公司,负责建设和管理中国国内的电信基础设施。The discussions-- likely directed by the government-- match with Premier Li Keqiang#39;s stated goals to reform state-owned enterprises by boosting competition. Bloomberg News中国移动一家营业网点中展示的手机。上述合资事宜可能由政府引导。中国总理李克强曾表示将通过提高竞争推动国有企业改革,筹建合资公司的举措与这一目标一致。While the planned joint venture could help enhance the sharing of resources and reduce the costs for future network expansion, dominant carrier China Mobile may lose its strength in network coverage as it is likely to share its extensive network with the smaller rivals, said analysts. 分析师表示,尽管计划筹建的合资公司可能有助于提高资源共享的程度并降低今后扩建网络的成本,但此举可能令占据主导地位的中国移动与规模较小的竞争对手分享其庞大网络,导致其丧失网络覆盖优势。China Mobile, which has reported declines in earnings, had a head start on speedier fourth-generation mobile services in China, hoping the new services would help fend off rising competition and help it regain growth momentum. 近期利润下滑的中国移动在发展高速4G网络务上拔得头筹,并希望4G网络能够助其应对日益激烈的竞争并重拾增长动能。Smaller rivals China Unicom and China Telecom operate on 3G mobile technology platforms that are widely used globally, which give them access to more popular smartphones. The two companies have sold Apple#39;s iPhones for several years but China Mobile only started offering them with the roll-out of its new 4G network in January. 其规模较小的竞争对手中国联通和中国电信采用了全球普遍使用的3G移动技术,这两家公司因此能够与更受欢迎的智能手机厂家合作。两家公司已经销售苹果iPhone数年,而中国移动在今年1月份推出其4G网络后才开始销售iPhone。The new joint venture could undermine China Mobile#39;s first-mover advantage in 4G services, analysts said. 分析师称,新合资企业可能削弱中国移动在4G务上的先发优势。#39;If all tower assets in China are transferred to this new company, it will help China Telecom and China Unicom to accelerate their 4G network rollout, #39;said Leping Huang, an analyst at Nomura. 野村(Nomura)分析师Leping Huang表示,如果中国全部通信铁塔资产均转移至这家新公司名下,那么受此推动中国电信和中国联通推出4G业务的速度可能加快。The number of telecom towers that China Telecom and China Unicom own is only equivalent to 28% and 46% of the towers that China Mobile owns, according to Nomura#39;s estimate. 据野村估算,中国电信和中国联通目前拥有的通信铁塔数仅相当于中国移动通信铁塔数的28%和46%。Analysts said an independent telecom tower company is a common business model in some countries like the U.S, India and Indonesia. A tower company typically will purchase or lease land, build telecom towers and lease the space in the tower to telecom operators. Telecom operators will use the space to install base station equipment they purchase from equipment vendors. 分析师称,在美国、印度和印度尼西亚等国,独立的通信铁塔公司是一种常见商业模式。通信铁塔公司通常会购买或租用土地,搭建通信铁塔并将通信铁塔内的空间出租给电信运营商。运营商将利用这些空间安装从设备供应商那里购买的基站设备。China didn#39;t have an independent tower company in the past. 中国过去没有独立的通信铁塔公司。As part of the government#39;s continued effort to promote competition, China Mobile has aly suffered from lower interconnection fees that smaller rivals pay for calls to the company#39;s network, beginning this year. Analysts said the savings from the interconnection policy will help fund China Unicom and China Telecom#39;s network upgrade and marketing efforts to further increase its mobile users this year. 中国政府一直在努力促进竞争,其中一项举措便是从今年开始下调中联通和中电信向中国移动付的网间结算费用。分析师称,中国联通和中国电信将利用这一政策所节省的费用升级网络、加强营销,以便今年进一步增加手机用户数量。They added that more policy headwinds are ahead for China Mobile in the coming years. For example, the Chinese government could gradually introduce mobile number portability which enables subscribers to retain their mobile numbers when changing from one carrier to another. This measure is expected to hit China Mobile badly as the mobile giant, with more than 770 million subscribers, controls about 60% of the mobile market in China. 分析师补充道,未来几年中国移动在政策上还将面临更多阻力。例如,中国政府可能逐步引入携号转网功能,即用户能够在更换运营商时保留原号码。预计这一措施将对中国移动构成严重打击,该公司用户数超过7.7亿,控制着中国移动通信市场大约60%的份额。China Mobile declined to comment. 中国移动对此不予置评。 /201405/294625

Beyond Verbal Communications Ltd., a voice-recognition software developer here, is rolling out an app promising something Siri can#39;t yet deliver: a out on how you feel.语音识别软件开发商Beyond Verbal Communications Ltd.即将推出一款应用软件,有望实现Siri尚且无法实现的一个功能:把你的情绪显示出来。Called Moodies, it lets a smartphone user speak a few words into the phone#39;s mike to produce, about 20 seconds later, an emotional analysis. Beyond Verbal executives say the app is mostly for self-diagnosis -- and a bit of fun: It pairs a cartoon face with each analysis, and users can share the face on social media.借助于这款名为“Moodies”的应用,智能手机用户可以朝着手机的麦克风讲话,在大约20秒钟之后生成情绪分析。Beyond Verbal的管理人员说,该应用主要是用于自我诊断,也可以带来一些小小的乐趣:它给每一次分析配上一张卡通脸孔,用户可以把脸孔拿到社交媒体上去分享。But the app is coming out as the company and other developers -- many clustered in Tel Aviv -- push increasingly sophisticated hardware and software they say can determine a person#39;s emotional state through analysis of his or her voice.在这款应用面世之际,Beyond Verbal和其他一些开发商――很多都扎堆特拉维夫――正在推出一些越来越尖端、据它们说可以通过分析语音确定一个人情绪状态的硬件和软件。These companies say the tools can also detect fraud, screen airline passengers and help a call-center technician better deal with an irate customer. And they can be used to keep tabs on employees or screen job applicants. One developer, Tel Aviv-based Nemesysco Ltd., offers what it calls #39;honesty maintenance#39; software aimed at human-resource executives. The firm says that by analyzing a job applicant#39;s voice at an interview, the program can help identify fibs.这些公司说,这些工具还可以侦测欺诈、检查飞机乘客、帮助呼叫中心技术人员更好地对付发飙的顾客。它们可以用来监视员工或筛选求职者。特拉维夫开发商Nemesysco Ltd.推出以人力资源经理为目标客户的“诚信维护”软件。该公司说,这套程序可以通过分析求职者在面试期间的说话声音来帮助辨别谎言。That#39;s raising alarm among many voice-analysis experts, who question the accuracy of such on-the-spot interpretations. It#39;s also raising worries among privacy advocates, who say such technology -- especially if it is being rolled out in cheap, easy-to-use smartphone apps -- could be a fresh threat to privacy.这引起了很多语音分析专家的警惕,他们对这类现场转译的准确性提出了质疑。也引起了很多隐私鼓吹者的忧虑,他们说,这类技术有可能成为一种新的隐私威胁,如果是以便宜好用的智能手机应用的形式推出,威胁就更为严重。Depending on how the analysis is performed, used and shared, #39;there could well be breaches of certain privacy laws,#39; says Gwendolen Morgan, an associate at Bindmans LLP, a London human-rights law firm.伦敦人权律师事务所Bindmans LLP合伙人格温德琳#12539;根(Gwendolen Morgan)说,这些分析“很有可能违反了某些隐私法规”,具体要看它们是怎样运行以及被使用和共享的。The new wave of technology is based on so-called layered voice analysis, and it#39;s related to the much broader, more established field of #39;speech-to-text#39; sentiment analysis. Verint Systems Inc., Thomson Reuters PLC and Hewlett-Packard Co. and others have long used speech-to-text technology to record phone calls and break them down into so-called text-based sentiment intelligence by flagging the occurrence of keywords or types of words. Call centers use the data to teach employees to keep customers on the phone or monitor employees for training purposes.这一波新的技术浪潮基于“深层语音分析”(layered voice analysis),跟更广泛、更成熟的“语音转文字”(speech-to-text)情绪分析领域有关。Verint Systems Inc.、汤森路透(Thomson Reuters PLC)、惠普(Hewlett-Packard Co.)等公司曾长期使用语音转文字技术来记录通话,并把出现在其中的关键词或某些词语种类标注出来,从而将通话分解为“基于文本的情绪情报”。呼叫中心用这些数据教员工如何让客户保持通话,或为了培训的目的而监测员工。The new speech-focused tools come as other companies are marketing body-language and facial-recognition sentiment-analysis tools -- including an app for Google Inc.#39;s Google Glass.在这些新的语音分析工具面世之际,其他公司也在销售身体语言和面部识别类的情绪分析工具,比如一款针对谷歌公司(Google Inc.)“谷歌眼镜”(Google Glass)的应用。Voice-recognition and analysis specialists say there is no question that emotions and patterns of speech can be linked. But many say the utility of the analysis can be limited by the extent to which voice samples have been collected -- often requiring years of samples to detect variations caused by emotions.语音识别与分析专家说,情绪和语音形态可能存在关联,这一点勿庸置疑。但很多人说,这类分析的实用性可能受制于语音样本的采集规模,常常需要采集多年的样本才能侦测到情绪造成的变异。Andrew Baron, assistant professor of psychology at the University of British Columbia in Vancouver, says information produced by a lot of the commercially focused voice-recognition technology can be #39;fuzzy.#39;温哥华英属哥伦比亚大学(University of British Columbia)心理学助理教授安德鲁#12539;巴伦(Andrew Baron)说,很多以商业为重的语音识别技术所产生的信息都有可能是“失真”的。#39;We simply don#39;t have the technology today, at the level of cognitive neuroscience, to really know the precise content of a person#39;s thought or emotion,#39; Mr. Baron says.巴伦说:“想要真正知道一个人思想或情绪的准确内容,我们今天根本就没有在认知神经科学的层面掌握这样的技术。”Israel has become an epicenter of the new technology largely because of its role as an incubator for security-focused technology. Nemesysco markets to security companies and law-enforcement agencies, as well as insurance companies and other corporate clients.以色列之所以成为这类新技术的中心,主要缘于它作为安全技术孵化器的角色。Nemesysco的目标客户有安保公司、执法机构,也有保险公司和其他一些企业客户。Britain#39;s Department of Work and Pension bought some of Nemesysco#39;s software to help it detect benefit fraud in 2007, but it says it discontinued the contract after three years after inconclusive results.英国就业及退休保障部(Department for Work and Pension)在2007年购入Nemesysco的一部分软件,来帮助它侦测骗取福利的行为。但该部表示,三年过后因为检测结果不确定,便中止了合同。Nemesysco founder Amir Liberman says his firm has come up with 120 vocal parameters that correlate with human emotions. Using algorithms, Mr. Liberman says the technology can pick up #39;patterns and abnormalities#39; and classify them as related to emotional states like stress, excitement and confusion. He says the technology#39;s benefits far outweigh any perceived infringement on personal privacy.Nemesysco创始人阿米尔#12539;利伯曼(Amir Liberman)说,他的公司已经确定了120个与人类情感相关的语音参数。利伯曼说,通过算法,这项技术可以甄别出一些“特定的模式和异常情况”,进而确认它们是否与紧张、兴奋、疑惑等情绪状态有关。他说,该技术的好处远远胜过一些人眼中个人隐私受到的侵犯。EmoSpeech, a startup based in Puebla, Mexico, and Cambridge, Mass., sells its voice-analysis product to call centers in Mexico. It promises an ability to identify four basic emotional states: happiness, anger, impatience and neutrality. The company is targeting call centers in the U.S., says Chief Executive Miriam Reyes.总部在墨西哥普埃布拉(Puebla)和美国马萨诸塞州坎布里奇(Cambridge)的初创公司EmoSpeech向墨西哥的呼叫中心出售其语音分析产品。它承诺能够辨别出快乐、愤怒、烦躁、中性这四种情绪状态。EmoSpeech首席执行长米丽娅姆#12539;雷耶斯(Miriam Reyes)说,公司正在面向美国的呼叫中心进行推销。Beyond Verbal, the company behind the Moodies smartphone app, says its software analyzes speech components like timing, energy, frequency and spectral content to produce data that can then be run through its algorithms.推出Moodies应用的Beyond Verbal公司说,该软件通过分析节奏、能量、频率和频谱内容等语音成分来生成数据,然后用自己的算法来进行加工。Founded in 2012, Beyond Verbal#39;s main business is selling layered-voice-analysis software to companies in the call-center business. The company recently closed a .8 million funding round led by prominent Kazakhstan-based angel investor Kenges Rakishev.Beyond Verbal成立于2012年,主要业务是向做呼叫中心业务的企业出售深层语音分析软件。最近该公司完成了一轮280万美元的融资,牵头的是哈萨克斯坦知名天使投资家肯格斯#12539;拉基谢夫(Kenges Rakishev)。Dan Emodi, Beyond Verbal#39;s vice president for marketing and strategic accounts, says the software is based on more than three years of research. Based on user feedback, he says, the smartphone app has an accuracy rate of 80%.Beyond Verbal负责营销与战略客户的副总裁丹#12539;埃默迪(Dan Emodi)说,该软件基于三年多的研究。他说,从用户反馈判断,这款智能手机应用软件有80%的准确率。As for any privacy concerns, he says, #39;Our responsibility is the people we work with, the partners we choose.#39; But he does acknowledge there #39;is no technological way for us to prevent anyone from taking our product and activating it on somebody else without their knowledge.#39;他说,至于隐私方面的忧虑,“我们的负责对象是一起合作的人、我们选择的合作伙伴”。但他也承认,“从技术上讲,我们没有办法阻止任何人拿着我们的产品在别人不知情的情况下在他们身上使用它”。 /201403/281260


  It turns out that nodding off in class may not be such a bad idea after all, as a new study has shown that going to sleep shortly after learning new material is the best way to remember it.看来在课堂上打瞌睡也许并不是坏事。一项新研究显示,学完新知识后马上打个小盹是最佳的记忆方法。According to US lead author Jessica Payne, a psychologist at the University of Notre Dame in Indiana, nodding off after learning something new is like ;telling; the sleeping brain what to retain.该研究的主要作者、美国印第安纳州诺特丹大学的心理学家杰西卡bull;佩恩认为,在学完新东西后打个盹就像把要记住的东西;告诉;睡眠中的大脑。Along with colleagues, she studied 207 students who habitually slept for at least six hours per night.她和同事一起对207名学生进行了研究,这些学生习惯每晚至少睡六个小时。Participants were randomly assigned to study declarative, semantically related or unrelated word pairs at 9am or 9pm, and returned for testing 30 minutes, 12 hours or 24 hours later.参与者被随机分配到几个学习小组,学习内容是陈述性知识,包括语义相连或不相连的词组。学习时间在早上9点或晚上9点。学完后他们在30分钟、12小时或24小时后回来做测试。Declarative memory refers to the ability to consciously remember facts and events, and can be broken down into episodic memory (memory for events) and semantic memory (memory for facts about the world).陈述性记忆指的是有意识地记忆事实和事件的能力,可以分为情节记忆(对事件的记忆)和语义记忆(对事实类知识的记忆)。People routinely use both types of memory every day ; recalling where we parked today or learning how a colleague prefers to be addressed.人们每天都会例行运用这两种记忆;;回想今天我们把车停在了哪里或了解一个同事喜欢别人怎么称呼他。At the 12-hour retest, memory overall was superior following a night of sleep compared to a day of wakefulness.在12小时后再次进行测试时,总体来看睡了一夜的人相比还没睡觉的人记忆效果更好。At the 24-hour retest, with all subjects having received both a full night of sleep and a full day of wakefulness, subjects#39; memories were superior when sleep occurred shortly after learning, rather than following a full day of wakefulness.在24小时后再度测试时,所有的实验对象都睡了一整夜,也在清醒中度过了一个白天。这次,那些在学习后不久就入睡的人比那些学习后过了一整个白天才睡觉的人记忆效果更好。;Our study confirms that sleeping directly after learning something new is beneficial for memory. What#39;s novel about this study is that we tried to shine light on sleep#39;s influence on both types of declarative memory by studying semantically unrelated and related word pairs,; Payne said.佩恩说:;我们的研究实,在学习新东西后马上睡觉对记忆有帮助。这项研究的创新之处在于,我们试图通过对语义相连和不相连的词组的记忆研究来揭示睡眠对于两种陈述性记忆的影响。;;Since we found that sleeping soon after learning benefited both types of memory, this means that it would be a good thing to rehearse any information you need to remember just prior to going to bed. In some sense, you may be #39;telling#39; the sleeping brain what to consolidate.;;我们发现在学习之后很快就睡觉对两种记忆都有帮助,这意味着在上床睡觉前温习你要记忆的东西将很有好处。在某种意义上,你可能在lsquo;告诉rsquo;睡眠中的大脑需要巩固强化的记忆。;Results of the study were published on March 22 in PLOS One.该研究的结果于3月22日发表在《科学公共图书馆;综合》期刊上。 /201203/175619。

  Whenever I talk to people about the future, I#39;m struck by their belief that it is knowable. The impression I get is that most people imagine the future like a book ending: aly written and able if you can just steal a quick look at the last few pages. What they find difficult is accepting that the pages aren#39;t written yet. The future hasn#39;t happened, hasn#39;t even been planned--and cannot be known because it doesn#39;t exist.每次我跟人说起“未来”,我都被他们对“未来是可知”的这一想法吓到。我的印象就是,大部分人都想象未来像书本一样,有一个结局:已经写好了、也可以读取。你只要快速地窥一眼这本书的最后几页就能知道。他们很难接受这最后几页根本没有写完。未来还没有发生、也没有计划好——也无法预知,因为它们还根本不存在。So I don#39;t know what will happen in 2014--and neither does anyone else. What I imagine, though, looks like this:所以我不知道2014会发生什么——谁也不知道。但在我的想象中,它会是这样的:1. Technausea. 科技厌恶症。Today#39;s and tomorrow#39;s technology sits on top of multiple layers, every one of which is changing and has to inter-operate with others. This makes our gadgets, the internet of things, phones and laptops unstable. And it makes consumers irritated. How many of your apps actually work--and actually make life easier, faster or more fun? I#39;d expect to see consumer cynicism grow, as delight is overtaken by disappointment. This will put pressure on hardware and software developers to deliver that most boring of qualities: reliability.现今和未来的科技都基于多重技术,而每一种技术都在发生着改变、并和其他技术交互。这让我们的科技产品,像是互联网的东西、电话、笔记本等等变得不稳定,这同时也让消费者感到厌恶。就说说你们手机里的应用,有多少你是真正在用的?又有多少真正能让你的生活变简单、变快捷、变得更有趣?我认为消费者对此的嘲讽情绪会上升,科技带给他们的愉悦感会被失望所取代。这会给硬件和软件的开发者造成压力,从而让他们追求最无趣的产品品质:稳定性。2. Mobile overtakes the web.移动端取代网页端。Most technology developers are seeing app use grow and web use decline. That means companies have to have strong, fast, meaningful mobile platforms and those that don#39;t lose customers.大部分的科技从业人员都认为移动应用会发展、而电脑应用会减弱。这意味着企业都需要强劲、快捷和实用的移动平台,不重视这点的企业必然会失去消费者。3. Tablets meet viruses.平板电脑的病毒出现。As PC use declines, infecting them with viruses just won#39;t be as much fun any more. I#39;d expect to see malware, worms and viruses jump onto tablets and phones. As a consequence, we will all have to start protecting our devices more assiduously.随着PC端的消亡,再用病毒攻击他们就没那么有趣了。我认为恶意软件、蠕虫病毒和其他病毒都会很快入侵平板和手机。结果就是,我们要更卖力地保护自己的设备。4. Manufacturing won#39;t save the economy.制造业也救不了经济。I#39;m pleased to see manufacturing jobs returning to the U.S., but I don#39;t expect the manufacturing industry to have the galvanic effect on the economy that many hope for. Why? Because automation will sharply erode the number of jobs any factory requires. The disappearance of blue-collar and entry-level jobs is aly a problem, and that problem will grow.我很高兴看到制造业的工作机会又重回美国市场,但我不认为它会像很多人期望的那样,产生原电池效应拯救经济。为什么?因为制造业中的很多工作机会都被机械化的自动生产取代了。蓝领阶层和基础职位的消失已经成了一个问题,而这个问题还将继续扩大。5. Women keep rising.女性地位继续上升。The appointment of Inga Beale to run Lloyds of London and of Mary Barra to run General Motors marked an encouraging end to 2013. Progress for women in the coming year will continue to be too little and too slow, but you should expect to see women in positions of power and influence everywhere. Even Japan is starting to try to get women into work.Inga Beale出任伦敦劳埃德保险公司CEO,Mary Barra 出任通用汽车高级副总裁,这些都为2013年的女性地位写下了浓墨重的一笔。接下来的一年,女性地位还将继续发展,但进展会缓慢而微小,但你一定能随处看到女性的权力和影响力。再怎么说,就连日本都开始鼓励女性工作了呢。6. Gene therapy comes good.基因疗法发展良好。After decades of promise, new gene therapies are starting to deliver real results. Like all new therapies, communicating accurately how and where it works will prove as challenging as the treatment itself.在经历了长达几十年的许诺后,新的基因疗法终于开始有了一些真实的好成果。不过就像所有的新型疗法一样,基因疗法需要向公众准确地传递如何治疗以及治疗背后的原理,这和疗法本身一样具有挑战性。7. Trust will remain the single most critical business issue.信任感依然会是商业领域中唯一且最关键的问题。Do your customers trust you? Do they know what you do with their data and are they happy with it? This will be a major issue not just for the N.S.A., Microsoft and Google. Nor will Google Glass be the only product to provoke debate. Trust reduces the cost of doing business and those who don#39;t build relationships of trust with their partners, suppliers and customers will feel the pinch.你的消费者信任你吗?他们知道你都拿他们的个人信息干嘛去了吗?你这么做他们高兴吗?这不仅仅是美国国家安全局、微软和谷歌的问题。谷歌眼镜也不会是唯一一个引发争论的产品。如果你和你的顾客之间有足够的信任,这会降低你做生意的成本;反之,那些不重视与合伙人、供应商和消费者建立信任关系的企业则会为之所累。 /201401/271217

  Apple called BS last week to the U.S. Mac sales numbers IDC and Gartner sent to clients two weeks earlier, AppleInsider‘s Daniel Eran Dilger reported Saturday. The two market research firms had sales falling. Apple had them growing by “strong double digits[s],” according to the earnings call transcript [see note below].据AppleInsider网站的丹尼尔·伊兰·迪尔格上周六报道,苹果(Apple)在上上周指出,IDC与高德纳(Gartner)给出的Mac电脑在美国的销售数字有误。这两家市场调研公司称,Mac电脑在美销售出现下滑,而苹果收益电话会议的文字记录显示,公司称Mac电脑在美销售增长强劲,“增幅高达两位数”。It’s not the first time Gartner and IDC have been caught with their methodological pants down. In November 2010 Asymco’s Horace Dediu was aghast to discover a 77 million unit discrepancy in their mobile phone data — data he depends on to draw his famous charts and graphs.这不是高德纳和IDC第一次被人发现方法论错误。2010年11月,Asymco的贺拉斯o德迪乌惊讶的发现,两者的移动电话销量数据差额高达7700万台,而德迪乌著名的图表正是基于该数据绘制。“Our methodologies, which are continually updated and improved, are among our most valuable assets,” according to Gartner, which goes on to describe them in the vaguest possible terms:高德纳称:“我们的方法论在不断更新和完善,它是我们最宝贵的财富之一。”该公司继续极为含糊其辞的描述道:“Once an objective is set, analysts gather information through formal and informal surveys of IT users, technology providers and investors, business professionals, academicians and other researchers.” [From Inside Gartner Research]“一旦目标设定,分析师会通过向IT用户、技术提供商和投资者、商务人士、学者和其他研究人员发放正式或非正式的调查来收集信息。”[摘自“高德纳内部研究”]It’s even squishier than that, according to a former IDC researcher who spent eight years with the company in the late 1990s and early 2000s.而据一名IDC公司的前研究员称,销售预测比上面说的更不可靠。该研究员曾于20世纪90年代末至21世纪初在IDC工作了八年。After I posted a story about the 77 million missing phones, he described in some detail how IDC goes about estimating sales.我发布了一篇关于“移动电话销量数据相差7700万台”的文章后,这名研究员给我透露了一些IDC公司如何进行销量预测的细节。According to my source, who for legal reasons asked that his name not be used, here’s how it worked:出于法律方面的考虑,这位线人要求匿名。他的讲述如下:“Philip, I know something about this sausage-making process, as I used to do it for IDC. In 3Q98, I did a cross-section, an excavation, if you like, of our methodology, putting a crowbar to it and snapping it into fragments. It was the PC count, but the methodology is the same for phones.“菲利普,我曾在IDC公司从事销量预测,所以对其中的肮脏内幕有所了解。1998年第3季度,我对公司的方法论进行了一番深入挖掘。尽管我做的调查是有关个人电脑销量预测,但手机销量预测的方法论是一样的。 ”“In most quarters, the team starts with OEM guidance and, depending on the country, does some by-country cross-checking. However, for the US team, we just did some systematic adjustments to the vendor guidance and called it a day. For example, we knew that lots of Macs were transshipped from Miami to Latin America. So, we took some percentage of Macs (Apple, of course, never helped; in fact, even objected, saying it wasn’t so) and reallocated them from the US to a smattering of Latin countries, effectively modeling the market but with no low-level data.“在大部分季度,团队先以原始设备制造商的销量指引为基础,并根据国家的不同,按国别进行交叉检验。然而,对于美国市场,我们只对供应商的销量指引做些系统性的调整就算完事。比如,我们知道许多Mac电脑是通过迈阿密转运到拉丁美洲的。因此,我们将美国市场的Mac电脑销量减去一定比例(当然,苹果从来没有帮过忙;事实上该公司甚至反对这种做法,称实情并非如此),由此得出来的销量就被安在几个拉美国家头上。这有效地模拟了市场状况,但缺乏底层数据持。”“So, in 3Q98, I analyzed the ‘choke points,’ those parts of the supply chain where the channel narrowed enough to get a definitive count. At the time, it was OS, processor, graphics, and hard drive. As I recall, I found 20 million processors with no homes. The market at the time was about 100 million, so this was a 20% discrepancy.“因此,在1998年第3季度,我分析了‘瓶颈’,即供应链中渠道窄到足以得到最终数字的部分。当时,“瓶颈”是操作系统、处理器、显卡和硬盘驱动器。我记得,我发现多出了2000万台处理器销量。而当时的市场容量大概是1亿台,所以差额高达20%。”“The process that ensued was a marvel of obfuscation. The leader of the Tracker team figured out a way to rationalize away all the extra units (e.g., multiprocessor servers, inventory, speculation, etc.). It was politically impossible to force the extra units on the regions because it would introduce gross distortions to the historical trends.“随后发生的事情简直堪称蒙混过关的典范。Tracker小组的组长想出了办法,让所有多出的处理器销量变得名正言顺(比如多处理器务器、库存、投机炒作等)。但多出的销量强加到这些类目上会有大问题,因为这将严重扭曲历史趋势。 ”“So, the mantra became, preserve the growth rates; to hell with the actual numbers. Even the growth rates are fiction. The fudge is in the “others” category, which is used as a plug to make the numbers work out. In fairness, we did do survey work, calling around, and attending white box conferences and venues to try to get a feel for that market, but in the end, the process was political. I used to tell customers which parts of the data they could trust, essentially the major vendors by form factor and region. The rest was garbage.“所以,最后就成了保留增速数据,别管实际数字。而即便增长率数据其实也是瞎编。关键在于“其它”类目,每当有平不了的数据就往“其它”里塞。平心而论,我们确实做了调查工作,四处打电话,参加白盒测试会议与聚会,试图感受市场情况,但说到底,整个过程并不靠谱。我曾告诉客户他们能信任哪部分数据,基本上也就是各大厂商的形状因素和地区数据。其它数据都是垃圾。”“The industry itself was aware of these issues, but agreed to maintain the fiction because it was convenient. Most vendors kept their own numbers, but referred to IDC for public purposes. Thing is, real executives got real compensation based on our numbers. There were other games played, but that’s for another time.“该行业本身意识到了这些问题,但选择了继续瞎编,因为这太省事了。大多数供应商自己统计了相关数据,但在公开场合都使用IDC公司给出的数字。关键就在于,那些高管们获得的薪酬是基于我们给出的销售数字。这里头还有其它一些把戏,不过这些下次再说吧。”“The question always came down to, are these fiduciary numbers that investment managers charged with keeping money for widows and orphans rely on, or are they just inside baseball for the industry to squabble over and not all that important? That question has never been answered.”“问题最终归结为,这些预测数据到底是那些为孤儿寡母理财的投资经理们进行投资决策的依据,还是只是行业内部自说自话的产物,根本无足轻重?这个问题一直没有。”[Note: The language Apple CFO Luca Maestri used in his prepared remarks -- ;We achieved strong double digit Mac growth across many countries, including the U.S., Canada, Mexico, the UK, Germany, France, Australia, China, India and the Middle-East; -- is open to interpretation. Does the growth rate apply to the set of countries listed, or to every element in the set?[注:在事先准备的发言中,苹果首席财务官卢卡o马斯特利的原话是:“Mac销量在许多国家实现了强劲的两位数增长,包括美国、加拿大、墨西哥、英国、德国、法国、澳大利亚、中国、印度以及中东。”这句话可以有不同的解释。马斯特利所说的两位数增长,是指上述所有国家的Mac总销量,还是指在以上各个国家的销量?Apple spokesman Steve Dowling confirmed Monday that the growth was double digit (i.e. 10% or more) in each of those markets.]苹果发言人史蒂夫·道林本周一实,Mac销量在上述各市场都实现了两位数增长(即增长率达到10%或10%以上)。] /201407/316469



  This is my last column for The Wall Street Journal, after 22 years of reviewing consumer technology products here.为《华尔街日报》评测科技类消费品22年后,这是我的最后一篇专栏文章。So I thought I#39;d talk about the dozen personal-technology products I reviewed that were most influential over the past two decades. Obviously, narrowing so many products in the most dynamic of modern industries down to 12 is a subjective exercise and others will disagree.所以我想来谈谈过去20年我评测过的12个最具影响力的个人科技产品。很显然,从这个最富活力的现代产业所生产的五花八门的产品中挑选出12个,这是个很主观的看法,别人也许会有不同意见。Though most were hits, a couple weren#39;t blockbusters, financially, and one was an outright flop. Instead, I used as my criteria two main things.虽然大多数产品都一窜而红,但有几个却叫好不叫座,有一个更是一败涂地。在这里,我来讲讲我的两个标准。First, the products had to improve ease of use and add value for average consumers. That was the guiding principle I laid down in the first sentence of my first column, in 1991: #39;Personal computers are just too hard to use, and it#39;s not your fault.#39;首先,产品要能提高易用性,能为普通消费者增添价值。这也正是我1991年第一篇专栏文章中头一句话所提出的指导原则:个人电脑太难用了,这不是你们的错。Second, I chose these 12 because each changed the course of digital history by influencing the products and services that followed, or by changing the way people lived and worked. In some cases, the impact of these mass-market products is still unfolding. All of these products had predecessors, but they managed to take their categories to a new level.其次,我之所以选择这12个产品,是因为所有这些产品都改变了数码历史的进程,它们要么影响了后来追随而至的产品和务,要么改变了人们的生活和工作方式。在某些情况下,这些大众产品仍在释放影响力。所有这些产品都有“前辈”,但它们做到了将其所属类别提升至一个新高度。Some ers will complain that Apple is overrepresented. My answer: Apple introduced more influential, breakthrough products for average consumers than any other company over the years of this column.一些读者可能会抱怨说,苹果(Apple)产品出现的频率过高。对此我的解释是,在我撰写本专栏的这些年里,相比其他任何一家公司,苹果面向普通消费者推出了更多具有影响力和突破性的产品。 /201402/275310。

  When it comes to bugs like bacteria and parasites, we#39;ve been trained to think that less is better. But there are some good guys in the microbial world — bugs that do the unglamorous work of keeping us regular and helping to relieve a range of disorders from diarrhea to irritable bowel syndrome (IBS). Now, a new study suggests that the same microbes may even help us stay slim.当谈到细菌和寄生虫的时候,我们习惯性的都认为越少越好。 实际上在微生物界中有一些好虫子的,它们做着枯燥无聊的工作来维持我们的身体正常运转,还能预防从腹泻到肠道紊乱综合症的病症。 现在新的研究发现这些微生物甚至帮助我们保持苗条。In the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, researchers at the University of Arizona and the Mayo Clinic in Arizona report a very small study of nine individuals — three of normal weight, three who were morbidly obese and three who underwent gastric bypass surgery. The team found that each group harbored a different intestinal zoo of microbes, and that following their surgery, the gastric bypass patients#39; gut bugs ended up looking much more similar to those of the normal weight patients.在一项美国国家科学院亚利桑那州大学和马奥诊所的研究者们进行的小范围试验中,有9个被观测者,三个正常体重,三个肥胖症,还有三个要做胃旁路手术的病人。 研究团队发现不同组的人体肠道中的菌群是完全不同的。在手术后,那三个有胃病的人最后的肠道菌群变的和正常体重的病人相近了。While these results are only preliminary, they do point to an entirely new way that doctors and patients might be able to tackle the growing obesity epidemic in the U.S. ;This study suggests that the differences in the organisms may play at least some role in why people lose the weight they do, ; says Dr. John DiBaise, a gastroenterologist at Mayo Clinic and one of study#39;s authors. ;Ultimately, we may not only be able to manipulate the microbes of obese individuals to look like those of normal weight people, but we might also potentially be able to predict a person#39;s susceptibility to obesity.;虽然这些结论只是初级的,但它确实为医生和病人降低美国日益增长的肥胖症比率打开了一扇新的大门。作为这项研究的主要研究员,马奥诊所的胃肠病学家约翰.迪拜瑟医生说:“这项研究说明这些微生物肯定在在人们的减肥过程中扮演了什么角色。如果弄得好,我们可能不仅让胖子们的肠道菌群和正常人的一样,还可以预测一个人会不会变胖。”What might be happening, suspects DiBaise, is that each person#39;s ability to extract energy and store fat from food changes depending on which combination of bugs are living in the gut. Those who are morbidly obese, it seems, tend to nurture bugs that promote the fat storage process, which might be a factor in their excessive weight gain. The bypass patients appeared to follow a similar pattern but in the opposite direction, eating less first and then developing bugs appropriate to that diet. It#39;s not clear how the physical act of reducing food intake drives that change, nor how long-lasting the possible slimming effects of the new bug population will be.拜瑟医生怀疑,每个人吸收营养、存储脂肪的能力和自己的肠道菌群的种类组合息息相关。胖子们的似乎在肠道内饲养了一群会提高脂肪存储的微生物才造成了他们的肥胖。而那些胃旁路患者也走了相同的路,不过方向刚好相反,吃的少,也就养成了适合节食的菌群。对于运动和减少食物摄入如何影响这种变化和这些减肥效果能减肥的新菌群能坚持多久还不是很清楚。But none of this means that downing the latest probiotic yogurts, which contain certain strains of good gut bacteria, should be the next weight loss craze. For one, says DiBaise, the strains that were dominant in the normal weight people are not the same as those promoted in the popular probiotic yogurts. Second, there is no evidence that probiotic products can do anything about weight loss; the latest scientific studies have shown only that probiotics can relieve antibiotic-related diarrhea, as well as alleviating IBS and aiding regularity. ;It is interesting to look at microbial flora, ; says Lynne McFarland, an epidemiologist at the Puget Sound Veterans Administration Medical Center, who was not affiliated with the study. ;But I would not run out and eat a lot of yogurt because of this.;但是这些结果不意味着喝含有一些良性菌的最新酸牛乳会成为下一个减肥风潮。拜瑟医生说,首先,人体肠道中的菌群和算牛乳的菌群是不一样的。其次,这些产品和能不能减肥基本没啥关系。最新的研究也只是发现这些饮料可以缓解抗生素相关的腹泻,减轻肠道综合症和稳定肠道。没有参与本研究的皮热老兵健康管理医疗中心的流行病学家林恩.马克弗兰说:“观察微生物菌从是很有意思的,那我也不能因此跑出去吃一大堆酸乳酪啊!”At least, not yet. More studies are needed to follow the same people as they lose weight through diet and exercise, to see if the composition of their gut flora changes — as it did with the gastric bypass patients. What#39;s more, notwithstanding the seemingly cause-and-effect link between gut flora and weight, that relationship can be deceiving; a third factor entirely may be causing both — a diet of highly processed foods, for instance, suggests Dr. David Katz, director of the Yale Prevention Research Center. What#39;s more, says Katz: ;Regardless of the variation of gut flora in the population, the entire population is getting heavy. So probiotics might tweak one#39;s personal vulnerability to obesity, but they would not much move the big dial [on the obesity epidemic], ; he says. Still, as anyone fighting the numbers on the scale knows, every little bit helps — even something a little as a bacterium.至少,现在还不行。还需要做更多的试验。观察同一些人在节食和锻炼后他们的肠道菌群组合变化是否和那些胃旁路手术的病人的一样。 还有,尽管肠道菌群和减肥之间看似有因果关系,但这种关系也许具有欺骗性。耶鲁预防研究中心的大卫.卡茨说,可能有第三种因素同时导致了前二者,比如一份对都是高杀菌处理食物的食谱。他还说,“无视人们肠道菌群的种类变化,人们还是在变重,就算它们能减弱人对肥胖趋势,还是改变不了大趋势。”但那些和秤上表针战斗的胖子们还是要抓紧最后的稻草-哪怕这稻草只有细菌那么小。 /201307/247392



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