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  • Lets call the next chapter of the story,;Circa regna Tonat;around the throne the thunder roars.故事的下一章节叫做 即;风云变幻的王座;Thomas Wyatt used the line in a poem written in a cell in the Tower of London after hed just witnessed the execution of five innocent men.这是托马斯·怀亚特在伦敦塔 目睹了五个无辜者惨遭处死 写下的诗句A few days later, an innocent woman would also die.不久后 一个无辜的女人也没能逃过此劫As you probably know, she was Anne Boleyn,and as you can probably guess, the author of this bloody drama was Thomas Cromwell.她就是安妮·林 或许你也猜到 这场血腥闹剧的幕后推手 便是托马斯·克伦威尔It wasnt the birth in 1533 of a baby girl,Elizabeth, that did for Anne.1533年 安妮诞下女婴伊丽莎白 并未对她造成太大不利Henry was disappointed, but he didnt turn against his new wife.亨利的确非常失望 但却为因此冷落这位新妻子No, he laid his hand on the babys head,recognising her as his legitimate daughter and hoped for better luck next time.他把手放在女婴头上 承认她合法的身份 并祈求下次能碰上好运18 months later, Anne was pregnant again.18个月后 安妮再度怀At the beginning of January 1536, more good news.1536年一月初 捷报传来Catherine of Aragon was dead.Henry was relieved.阿拉贡凯瑟琳去世 亨利终于放下包袱 ;God be praised,; He said,;That we are free from all suspicion of war.;;赞美上帝; 他说道;我们再不用为战争担忧了;Maybe it was at this point that the cogs and wheels of Cromwells mind started to whirl.也许正是此时 克伦威尔开始策划自己的阴谋For Cromwell had decided to engineer a reconciliation between Henry and the Emperor Charles V.克伦威尔决定设法调和 亨利和查理五世的关系With the Emperors Aunt Catherine now safely dead,the timing was perfect except for one thing,Anne.皇帝的凯瑟琳姑姑已寿终正寝 时机已经成熟 除了一个因素 安妮 /201701/487183
  • Paul Krugman, the Nobel Prize in economics, once wrote:诺贝尔经济学奖得主,保罗克·鲁格曼,曾经说过:;Productivity is not everything, but in the long run, it is almost everything.;“生产力不能代表一切,但长期来看,它差不多就是一切。”So this is serious. There are not that many things on earth that are ;almost everything.;这是个严肃的问题。世界上没有什么东西能“几乎代表一切。”Productivity is the principal driver of the prosperity of a society. So we have a problem.生产力是社会繁荣的主要推动力。那么我们面临着一个问题。In the largest European economies, productivity used to grow five percent per annum in the 50s, 60s, early 70s.在欧洲最大的经济体当中,50、60年代和70年代初期的生产力,曾经保持着每年5%的增长速度。From 73 to 83: three percent per annum. From 83 to 95: two percent per annum.在1973-1983年间,生产力年化增长率为3%。在1983-1995年间,生产力年化增长率保持在2%。Since 1995: less than one percent per annum. The same profile in Japan.自1995年以来,生产力年化增长率每年的增长一直低于1%。日本也是如此。The same profile in the US, despite a momentary rebound 15 years ago, and despite all the technological innovations around us:美国亦是如此,即便15年前出现了一次短暂的经济复苏,虽然我们身边的科技日新月异:the Internet, the information, the new information and communication technologies.例如互联网,信息技术,新信息技术和通讯技术的发展。When productivity grows three percent per annum, you double the standard of living every generation.生产力年化增长率为3%时,生活水平每个年代会翻一番。Every generation is twice as well-off as its parents.每一代人享受到的福利是其父母那代的两倍。When it grows one percent per annum, it takes three generations to double the standard of living.当增长率仅为1%时,需要3代的时间才能使生活水平翻一番。And in this process, many people will be less well-off than their parents.在这一进程中,许多人会过得还不如他们的父母。They will have less of everything: smaller roofs, or perhaps no roof at all,他们的一切都更差些:房子更小了,或者根本没房子,less access to education, to vitamins, to antibiotics, to vaccination -- to everything.受教育机会更少,获取维生素、抗生素、疫苗的机会也更少--一切机会都更少。Think of all the problems that were facing at the moment. All.考虑下我们当前所面临的所有问题。所有问题。Chances are that they are rooted in the productivity crisis.我们的问题有可能是扎根于生产力危机之上的。Why this crisis? Because the basic tenets about efficiency为什么说这个危机是根源呢?因为效率的基本原理effectiveness in organizations, in management -- have become counterproductive for human efforts.组织、管理的效率--往往会使人们的努力适得其反。Everywhere in public services -- in companies, in the way we work, the way we innovate, invest -- try to learn to work better.在公共事业的任何地方--在公司当中、我们的工作方式里、我们的创新、投资方式上--都在努力提高效率。Take the holy trinity of efficiency: clarity, measurement, accountability. They make human efforts derail.效率的三位一体是指:透明度、衡量和问责制。它们使人们的努力白费。There are two ways to look at it, to prove it. One, the one I prefer, is rigorous, elegant, nice -- math.有两个方式来看待、明这点。第一,也是我偏向的一种,是严谨,典雅,美观大方的数学。But the full math version takes a little while, so there is another one.但完整的数学评估方案需要一点时间,因此又有了另一种方式。It is to look at a relay race. This is what we will do today.就是通过接力赛跑来看。也是我们今天要用到的。Its a bit more animated, more visual and also faster -- its a race. Hopefully, its faster.这样会更生动、更直观也更快--这是短跑比赛嘛。当然,我们希望它更便捷。World championship final -- women. Eight teams in the final.世界杯决赛--女子项目。决赛共有八队。The fastest team is the US team. They have the fastest women on earth. They are the favorite team to win.最快的是美国队。美国有全世界最快的女运动员。她们是夺冠热门。Notably, if you compare them to an average team, say, the French team,显然,如果你把她们和一般的队伍比较,比如说,法国队吧,based on their best performances in the 100-meter race, if you add the individual times of the US runners,按照她们在100米短跑当中的最佳成绩,把美国选手个人的成绩相加起来,they arrive at the finish line 3.2 meters ahead of the French team.最后她们会在达终点线时比法国队领先3.2米。And this year, the US team is in great shape.今年,美国队状态很好。Based on their best performance this year, they arrive 6.4 meters ahead of the French team, based on the data.根据她们今年的最好成绩,她们在到达终点时应该要领先法国队6.4米,这是根据数据推算的。We are going to look at the race.那我们来看一下比赛。At some point you will see, towards the end, that Torri Edwards, the fourth US runner, is ahead.从某个角度来看,快到终点时,Torri Edwards,美国队第四棒,暂时领先。Not surprising -- this year she got the gold medal in the 100-meter race.毫不意外地--今年她在100米赛跑中获得了金牌。And by the way, Chryste Gaines, the second runner in the US team, is the fastest woman on earth.顺便说下,Chryste Gaines,美国队第二棒,是地球上跑得最快的女性。So, there are 3.5 billion women on earth. Where are the two fastest?那么,全世界有35亿女性。最快的两个在哪里?On the US team. And the two other runners on the US team are not bad, either.在美国队。美国队的另外两名选手也不赖。So clearly, the US team has won the war for talent.显然,美国队赢得了人才争夺战。But behind, the average team is trying to catch up. Lets watch the race.不过在其背后,普通的队伍也在奋力追赶。我们来看下比赛。So what happened? The fastest team did not win; the slower one did.所以视频里发生了什么?最快的队伍没有赢;慢的那一队反而赢了。By the way, I hope you appreciate the deep historical research I did to make the French look good.顺便说下,我希望你们能认可我做了非常深入的历史研究来使法国看起来很好。But lets not exaggerate -- its not archeology, either.但我们不要这么夸张--这也不是考古学。But why? Because of cooperation. When you hear this sentence:但是为什么呢?因为合作。当你听到这句话:;Thanks to cooperation, the whole is worth more than the sum of the parts.;“多亏了合作,整体大于部分之和。”This is not poetry; this is not philosophy. This is math.这不是诗歌;这不是哲学。这是数学。Those who carry the baton are slower, but their baton is faster.握着接力棒的人跑得慢了点,但她们交接棒更快。Miracle of cooperation: it multiplies energy, intelligence in human efforts.合作的奇迹:它能让人们努力的能量和智慧加倍。It is the essence of human efforts: how we work together, how each effort contributes to the efforts of others.这是人们努力的精髓:我们如何合作,个人的成果如何为团队做贡献。With cooperation, we can do more with less.通过合作,我们可以事半功倍。Now, what happens to cooperation when the holy grail -- the holy trinity, even -- of clarity, measurement, accountability -- appears?那么,当目标--包含了--清晰度、衡量、问责的圣神三位一体--出现时,会对合作产生什么影响?Clarity. Management reports are full of complaints about the lack of clarity.清晰度。管理报告充满了对缺乏清晰度的抱怨。Compliance audits, consultants diagnostics.合规性审核、咨询诊断。We need more clarity, we need to clarify the roles, the processes.我们需要更高的清晰度,我们要明确角色分担和过程。It is as though the runners on the team were saying, ;Lets be clear -- where does my role really start and end?就好比说队伍里的选手说,“我们明确下吧--我从哪里跑到哪里?Am I supposed to run for 95 meters, 96, 97...?; Its important, lets be clear.我要跑95米,还是96、97米...?”这很重要,我们要分清楚。If you say 97, after 97 meters, people will drop the baton, whether there is someone to take it or not.如果你说97米的话,那么跑完97米,人们就会把交接棒丢掉,可不管到时候有没有人接。Accountability. We are constantly trying to put accountability in someones hands.问责制。我们总是试图把责任规定给某个人。Who is accountable for this process? We need somebody accountable for this process.谁对这个过程负责?我们需要一个人对这个过程负责。So in the relay race, since passing the baton is so important, then we need somebody clearly accountable for passing the baton.所以在接力赛中,既然交接棒如此之重要,那么我们需要非常明确负责交接棒的人是谁。So between each runner, now we will have a new dedicated athlete,在两个选手中间,我们现在要规定一个新的专门的运动员,clearly dedicated to taking the baton from one runner, and passing it to the next runner.这个运动员要非常明确地专注于接过上一个选手的交接棒,然后再交接给下一个选手。And we will have at least two like that. Well, will we, in that case, win the race?而且我们至少需要两个这样的选手。那么,我们,这样以来会赢得比赛吗?That I dont know, but for sure, we would have a clear interface, a clear line of accountability.这个我就不知道了,但是可以肯定的是,我们有一个明确的分工,对责任有了非常明确的划分界线。We will know who to blame. But well never win the race.我们会知道由谁来承担过错。但我们不会赢得比赛。If you think about it, we pay more attention to knowing who to blame in case we fail, than to creating the conditions to succeed.如果你仔细想想,会发现我们在失败时把更多精力集中在确定谁来负责的问题上,而不是去创造有利于成功的条件。All the human intelligence put in organization design -- urban structures, processing systems -- what is the real goal?把所有的人类智慧都投入到组织设计当中--城市结构、处理系统--真正的目的是什么?To have somebody guilty in case they fail.目的是在失败的时候把责任归咎于某人。We are creating organizations able to fail, but in a compliant way, with somebody clearly accountable when we fail.我们创造了会失败的组织,但是以一种合规的方式来创造的,在这种组织中有明确的人来为失败负责。And we are quite effective at that -- failing.在失败这点上,人们做的相当有效率。Measurement. What gets measured gets done.衡量。东西衡量好了,事情也就完成了。Look, to pass the baton, you have to do it at the right time, in the right hand, at the right speed.你看,要传递交接棒,你要在对的时间、用对的手、以正确的速度来传递。But to do that, you have to put energy in your arm. This energy that is in your arm will not be in your legs.但要这么做的话,你要把能量分配到你的手臂里。你手臂中的能量不在你的腿里。It will come at the expense of your measurable speed.你必须牺牲掉可被衡量的速度。You have to shout early enough to the next runner when you will pass the baton,你将要交接的时候要及早喊出声,to signal that you are arriving, so that the next runner can prepare, can anticipate.发出信号说明你快到了,以便让下一位选手最好准备、有所预备。And you have to shout loud. But the blood, the energy that will be in your throat will not be in your legs.而且你要喊得够大声。但是这时血液、能量会集中在你的喉咙里,而不是你的腿里。Because you know, there are eight people shouting at the same time.因为你知道,这时候有8个人同时在喊。So you have to recognize the voice of your colleague. You cannot say, ;Is it you?; Too late!所以你要辨别得出你队友的声音。你可不能说,“是你吗?”这就晚了!Now, lets look at the race in slow motion, and concentrate on the third runner.那么,我们现在看下比赛的慢动作,大家注意第三棒选手。Look at where she allocates her efforts, her energy, her attention.你看她把力量、能量和注意力都分配在哪里。Not all in her legs -- that would be great for her own speed -- but in also in her throat, arm, eye, brain.并没有都在腿部--虽然这样对她的速度很有利--可也分配在了喉咙、手臂、眼睛、大脑里。That makes a difference in whose legs? In the legs of the next runner.那么这对哪个选手的腿产生了影响呢?是下一个选手的腿。But when the next runner runs super-fast, is it because she made a super effort, or because of the way the third runner passed the baton?但当下一名选手跑得特别快的时候,这是因为她自己特别使劲跑了呢,还是因为前面一名选手的交接棒传得好呢?There is no metric on earth that will give us the answer.这个地球上没有标准来给我们一个。And if we reward people on the basis of their measurable performance,如果我们根据可以测量的表现来对人们进行奖励的话,they will put their energy, their attention, their blood in what can get measured -- in their legs.人们就会把自己的能量、注意力和血液集中在能够被测量的部位--就是腿部。And the baton will fall and slow down.而这样一来交接棒会滑落然后传递速度会减慢。To cooperate is not a super effort, it is how you allocate your effort.合作不是一股超级力量,而是对力量的分配。It is to take a risk, because you sacrifice the ultimate protection granted by objectively measurable individual performance.这意味着冒险,因为你要牺牲可被客观测量的个人表现所能给予你的终极保障。It is to make a super difference in the performance of others, with whom we are compared.这对别人的表现有着重要影响,而这些人正是和我们相比较的人。It takes being stupid to cooperate, then. And people are not stupid; they dont cooperate.所以要合作就要当傻子。但是人们可不是傻子;所以他们不合作。You know, clarity, accountability, measurement were OK when the world was simpler. But business has become much more complex.你知道吗,在比较简单的世界里,清晰度、问责制、衡量都是可行的。但商业已经变得更加复杂了。With my teams, we have measured the evolution of complexity in business.我的团队,我们评估了商业复杂度的演变。It is much more demanding today to attract and retain customers, to build advantage on a global scale, to create value.如今要吸引并留住客户,打造世界级的优势并创造价值,是一件要求严苛的事。And the more business gets complex, the more, in the name of clarity, accountability, measurement we multiply structures, processes, systems.而商业越是复杂,我们就越是会以清晰度、问责和衡量的名义来让结构、过程和体制更加复杂繁多。You know, this drive for clarity and accountability triggers a counterproductive multiplication of interfaces,要知道,这种对清晰度和问责的推崇会引发一种反生产力的复杂化,导致出现更多的分界线、middle offices, coordinators that do not only mobilize people and resources, but that also add obstacles.中间部门、协调者,他们不仅能动员人力和物资,但也会增添障碍。And the more complicated the organization, the more difficult it is to understand what is really happening.组织越是复杂,就越难理解究竟发生了什么。So we need summaries, proxies, reports, key performance indicators, metrics.所以我们需要做总结、代理、报告、关键绩效指标、衡量标准。So people put their energy in what can get measured, at the expense of cooperation.所以人们都把精力放在了可以被测量的东西上,然后牺牲合作。And as performance deteriorates, we add even more structure, process, systems.当表现退步了,我们会增加更多的结构、过程、体系。People spend their time in meetings, writing reports they have to do, undo and redo.人们会把时间都用来开会、写报告,写了又改、改了又写。Based on our analysis, teams in these organizations spend between 40 and 80 percent of their time wasting their time,根据我们的分析数据显示,这些机构的团队会把40%到80%的时间用来浪费时间,but working harder and harder, longer and longer, on less and less value-adding activities.他们越做越辛苦,越做越耗时,而增值活动却越来越少。This is what is killing productivity, what makes people suffer at work.这才是泯灭生产力的罪魁祸首,这才是让人们工作痛苦的原因。Our organizations are wasting human intelligence. They have turned against human efforts.我们的组织在浪费人类智慧。它们和人类的努力背道而驰。When people dont cooperate, dont blame their mindsets, their mentalities, their personality -- look at the work situations.当人们不合作的时候,不要怪他们的思想、他们的心理、他们的性格--请看一下他们的工作环境吧。Is it really in their personal interest to cooperate or not,合作与否真的事关他们的个人利益吗,if, when they cooperate, they are individually worse off? Why would they cooperate?如果他们合作了,他们的个人表现会不会被削弱?既然如此他们为什么还会合作呢?When we blame personalities instead of the clarity, the accountability, the measurement, we add injustice to ineffectiveness.当我们责怪的是一个人的性格,而不是责怪清晰度、问责制和衡量方法时,我们在无效之上又加上了不公正。We need to create organizations in which it becomes individually useful for people to cooperate.我们要创造的组织,应该让人们觉得合作有益于个人。Remove the interfaces, the middle offices -- all these complicated coordination structures.把界线划分、中间部门取消掉--所有这些复杂的协调结构。Dont look for clarity; go for fuzziness. Fuzziness overlaps.不要强求清晰度;选择模糊。模糊没有明确分界线。Remove most of the quantitative metrics to assess performance.取消大部分的评估表现的量化指标。Speed the ;what.; Look at cooperation, the ;how.;速度指的是“什么”。可我们要看的是合作,即“如何。”How did you pass the baton? Did you throw it, or did you pass it effectively?你如何传递交接棒?你直接抛弃它吗,还是有效地传递过去?Am I putting my energy in what can get measured -- my legs, my speed -- or in passing the baton?我是不是把我的能量都集中在了可量化的方面--我的腿,我的速度-- 还是放在了如何传递交接棒上?You, as leaders, as managers, are you making it individually useful for people to cooperate?你们,作为领导和管理者,是否让人们觉得合作有益于个人了?The future of our organizations, our companies, our societies hinges on your answer to these questions. Thank you.我们组织、公司、社团的未来取决于你们对这些问题的。谢谢。201706/515075
  • TED演讲集 那些匪夷所思的新奇思想201612/480347
  • The U.S. military says a coalition airstrike that hit Syria early Saturday was meant for ISIS fighters,but it might have hit Syrian regime soldiers instead.美国军方表示,周六早些时候联军空袭叙利亚旨在打击ISIS武装分子,但击中的可能是叙利亚政权士兵。Syrias military says at least 62 soldiers were killed while fighting ISIS troops near the city of Deir ez-Zor. And Russia, an ally of Syria, claims the U.S.-led airstrike allowed ISIS forces to advance.叙利亚军方称,在代尔祖尔附近抗击ISIS军队的62名士兵遇难。作为叙利亚的同盟国,俄罗斯声称美国领导的空袭助长了ISIS力量。In a statement, U.S. Central Command noted Russian officials were informed of the strikes location in advance, and the attack was halted once Russia raised the possibility that it might have hit Syrian forces.在一份声明中,美国中央司令部指出,已提前告知俄罗斯官员袭击位置,俄罗斯一提出可能会打击到叙利亚政府军,袭击立即停止。Syria is currently under a fragile cease-fire agreement brokered by the U.S. and Russia. Russia recently called on the U.S. to rein in certain militant groups accused of violating the truce.叙利亚目前处于由美俄协调下脆弱的停火协议中。俄罗斯最近呼吁美国控制一些被指控违反停火协议的激进组织。译文属。201609/466761
  • We were actually looking for some small pieces of bone.我们正在找一些小骨骼We have seen that there were bones in those rocks我们看到那些石头里有骨骼so we were just essentially chipping little pieces of rock所以我们耐心地敲碎石头and seeing if there were any bones or fragments in there.看看里面是不是有骨头或碎片Dr Rougier doesnt do dinosaurs. Hes not even looking for plants.Rougier士并非研究恐龙,他也不是在寻找植物Hes after something even more precious and harder to find.他的目标是一些更珍贵、更难找的东西People working on dinosaurs think that they have a lot of heavy work and so on,研究恐龙的那些人认为他们的工作非常繁重but we looking for tiny little mammals, you know little creatures like this and like that,但是我们要找的是小型哺乳动物,你要知道像这样的小动物we have an even harder time because they can trip over a skeleton of a dinosaur,找起来更加困难,它们可能被恐龙的骨骼埋住but for us to identify a little mammal jaw like this而我们却要在现场辨认这么小的哺乳动物颚骨,in the field for which only a little portion is showing up its very tough.它们只露出这么小一点点,这真的非常困难Mammals were the Cinderellas of the Jurassic.哺乳动物是侏罗纪时代的“灰姑娘”They were tiny, like present day mice, and probably nocturnal.它们像今天的老鼠一样小,而且很可能是夜行动物Their fossils are so rare that before the site was discovered在这次发现之前,它们的化石非常稀少not a single Jurassic mammal had ever been found in South America before.此前南美洲从未发现过一种侏罗纪哺乳动物We were kind of y to head back home and kind of a little bit dispirited我们都已经准备回家了,大家都有点失望because after four or five days we havent really gotten what we were looking for,因为连续四五天我们都没能找到我们想要的东西I saw a little thing that was very suggestive of a jaw of a mammal,我看见一样小东西很像哺乳类的颚骨but there wasnt enough showing to be sure that that was the case.但它那些部分并不能完全说明它就是颚骨But when he looked closer Dr Rougier saw teeth.可是当Rougier士仔细观察时,他看到了牙齿。201706/513596
  • Bear is very kind of inspiration that makes you feel that you can do it and everything is ok.贝尔很擅长鼓舞人心 会让你觉得你能做到 任何事都没问题Before you know it hes done near in the water,gush it for breath.在你反应过来之前 他就已经快入水了 已经浮出水面换气了The teamve became very accustomed to me to jump from the choppers,and generally lounge myself out to be unknown.整个团队看惯了我跳机 投身于未知的环境But in southern Texas,were heading into the heart of Chihuahua desert.但是在德克萨斯州南部 我们要进入奇瓦瓦沙漠Biplane was my means of entry.The plan was for the plane to invert and drop me out.我想乘坐复翼飞机进入 计划是让机身翻转 然后把我扔下去but the large tail is causing concern.If I head it when I jumped,it would be curtains.we had to find the solution.但是巨大的机尾会引起麻烦 如果我跳机的时候撞上了机尾 我就翘辫子了 我们必须要找到解决之道What we try to do for this one is trying to drop out a biplane where that you get inverted and I can just, disappear from it.这次我要从复翼机机翼跳下去 机身翻转的时候 把我扔下去The pilot is going this is called a mad one to do.Im thingking,you know, ;help;.飞行员说这太疯狂了 我认为 救命啊But you know we can work well in a team we try to minimize the risk while we doing it.You know, Im pretty confident we can we can do this.但是我们合作无间 我们尽可能将风险减到最低 我很有信心我们能 我们能做到Yes, its definitely got to be an exciting entrance,and probably one the best one youve done.显然 这次进入地区是激动人心的一次 可能是最棒的一次Before take off, Simon had to work out how to film the sequence.在起飞前 西蒙需要先设定好拍摄的顺序It is a big dilemma:where the position of himself to get shots of me sitting in the cockpit.简直左右两难 不知道他要从哪里 拍摄我在座舱的位置This is a new challenge first cause its only the beginning of the show.这是一次全新的挑战 因为这才仅仅是这期节目的开头而已Bear jumped out of an aircraft and Im sitting around next to him.Helicopter,plane, whatever.贝尔跳出飞机了 我就坐在他旁边 直升机 飞机 无论什么This one is, look, a plane that has two seats.and one for the pilot there and one for Bear there.看看这架 只有两个位置 一个是给飞行员坐的 一个是贝尔坐的Where...where I gonna go.So Im talking to the pilot,he says I can be on the wing.我要坐哪儿 所以我跟飞行员说这个问题 他说我可以待在机翼上I cant be in the draft of this prop,cause its gonna be 200 miles on the wind So Id be just outside that,which means Im right here, about the six feet away from Bear.我不能待在推进器上 因为风速高达时速200英里 所以我就待在外面 我就在这儿 离贝尔大约6英尺远which, um...there is no other place to be,so thats where Im gonna be for the shot.那里 也没有其他地方可以待了 所以我在那里进行拍摄201605/446295
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