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时间:2018年10月23日 19:50:06

Russia is finding that empire building can be a painful business. 俄罗斯正发现,建立帝国是一件痛苦的事情。The economy was aly slipping before the whole Ukrainian crisis hit. Now its being battered even more. A weakening currency has pushed up inflation, triggering yet another central bank rate hike. At the same time sanctions, sharply tightening credit conditions and capital outflows are pushing Russia into recession. 相关阅读专题:乌克兰危机在乌克兰危机全面爆发前,俄罗斯经济就已处在滑坡中,目前的情形更是雪上加霜。卢布的不断走软推升了俄罗斯通货膨胀,促使该国央行再度加息。与此同时,西方国家实施的制裁、信贷条件的大幅收紧以及资本的外流正将俄罗斯推向衰退深渊。Standard amp; Poors cut Russias credit rating to one notch above junk on Friday morning citing concerns about capital outflows. The ruble, which had aly been suffering with other emerging market currencies on the global liquidity implications about the Federal Reserves decision to trim its asset purchase program, started losing ground heavily once Ukrainian tensions bubbled up earlier this year. Russians involvement--its annexation of Crimea and the threat of doing the same with Ukraines Russian-speaking east and south--triggered western sanctions. These, in turn, accelerated domestic nervousness about the economy, speeding capital flight. 标准普尔(Standard amp; Poors)周五以担忧资本外流为由将俄罗斯信用评级下调至仅较垃圾级高一档的水平。美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve)收缩资产购买计划的决定对全球流动性的影响已经令卢布等新兴市场货币承压,而在今年早些时候乌克兰紧张局势升级后,卢布更是开始大幅走低。俄罗斯对克里米亚的吞并以及对乌克兰其他俄罗斯族裔聚集地区的虎视眈眈已促使西方对其实施制裁。这进而又加重了俄罗斯国内民众对本国经济的不安,加剧了资本外流。The Russian central bank responded by putting up its key interest rate to 7% from 5.5% in March, in what was originally meant to be a temporary measure, to be unwound by the summer. But on Friday it hiked again, to 7.5%, and made clear higher rates were no longer temporary. 为抑制资本流出,俄罗斯央行在今年3月份将基准利率由5.5%上调%。这原本应是一项临时性举措,按计划会在夏季结束前解除。但周五,该行再度加息,将利率调高至7.5%,同时明确表示加息不再是临时之举。这将成为已举步维艰的俄罗斯经济面临的一个严重问题。Thatll be a significant problem for an economy aly struggling to grow. Between 2000 and the financial crisis, the Russian economy expanded an average of 7% a year. It rebounded smartly after a hefty decline in 2008, but by 2013, it only grew 1.3%. And it appears to have contracted in the first quarter, according to estimates by Capital Economics, a London-based consultancy. Russias manufacturing purchasing managers index pointed to contraction for the fifth successive month in April, while the composite index, which includes both services and manufacturing dropped to a 58-month low. 2000年至金融危机爆发前,俄罗斯经济年均增长率%。在2008年经济增速急剧放缓后曾大幅反弹,但2013年仅增长1.3%。据伦敦咨询机构凯投宏观(Capital Economics)预测,第一季度俄罗斯经济有所萎缩月份俄罗斯制造业采购经理人指PMI)连续第五个月显示行业活动收缩,与此同时,包括务业和制造业的综合PMI降至58个月低点。Coupled with expectations Russia will be further isolated on the international state, with the possibility of more and wider sanctions, its no wonder capital outflows are accelerating. The Russian central bank estimates outflows of more than billion during the first three months of the year, the largest quarterly total since the depth of the financial crisis. 再考虑到西方可能对俄罗斯实施更多、更广泛的制裁,从而使后者在国际上进一步被孤立,资本流出俄罗斯的速度无疑会加快。俄罗斯央行估计,今年第一季度资本流出该国的规模超00亿美元,为金融危机高峰以来资本外流规模最大的一个季度。This outflow has registered in Russias asset markets--Russian equities are down some 22% in dollar terms since the start of the year. 资本外流的影响已经在俄罗斯资产市场得到体现。以美元计算,俄罗斯股市今年以来累计下跌2%。Theres a complex, symbiotic relationship between Russian President Vladimir Putin and the countrys oligarchs. He might be their patron and protector. But as they find their wealth and privileges eroded by sanctions, Mr. Putin could yet find himself thrown into the position of Englands King John facing the barons at Runnymede, where the kings once unlimited powers were curtailed by the Magna Carta. Alternatively, Russia could slip further into Soviet-style repression. 俄罗斯总统普京(Vladimir Putin)与该国政治寡头之间存在复杂的共生关系。普京可能是这些政治寡头的保护者。不过,随着这些政治寡头发现自己的财富和特权被制裁举措侵蚀,普京可能面临当初英国国王约John)在兰尼米德遇到的局面,约翰在当地迫于贵族的压力签署了《大宪章Magna Carta),使自身曾经巨大无比的权力受到限制。但也可能出现的另一种情况是,俄罗斯进一步转向苏联时期那种高压管制模式。来 /201404/292164

A key committee in Britains parliament issued a report Tuesday saying lawmakers will not support expanding airstrikes into Syria unless Prime Minister David Camerons government answers a number of questions about the legal, political and military risks.英国议会的一个重要委员会星期二发表报告说,除非卡梅伦首相的政府就一系列有关法律、政治和军事风险的问题做出答复,否则议会就不持把空袭行动扩大到叙利亚。Britain has been a part of the U.S.-led coalition conducting airstrikes against Islamic State militants in Iraq, but Cameron has failed to gain enough support to send forces to Syria on the same mission.英国一直参与美国领导的针对伊拉克境内伊斯兰国激进分子的空袭,但卡梅伦没有获得足够的持,因此不能派战机在叙利亚采取同样的行动。The Commons Foreign Affairs Committee highlighted the need to focus on finding a political solution to Syrias crisis and said British airstrikes could both hurt that effort and the countrys standing in possible negotiations.英国议会下院外交委员会强调,必须将重点放在寻求以政治方式解决叙利亚危机,并表示英国进行空袭可能不利于这一努力,并会损害英国主张进行谈判的立场。In 2013, British lawmakers rejected the governments proposal to launch airstrikes in Syria, and Tuesdays report recommends it not try again without answering a total of seven questions. Those include identifying what ground troops would seize and hold any territory captured from Islamic State militants.2013年,英国议会曾否决政府有关在叙利亚境内发动空袭的提案。英国下院外交委员会星期二发表的报告说,政府要在空袭叙利亚境内目标,必须首先对七个问题做出答复。Cameron said during a July interview with Ns Meet The Press that Britain was committed to defeating the militants in both Iraq and Syria, but would not expand into Syria without the backing of parliament.卡梅月接受美国电视台”与媒体见面”采访时说,英国致力于打垮伊拉克和叙利亚境内的激进分子,但在得不到本国议会持的情况下,不能将空袭行动扩展的叙利亚。来 /201511/408033


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