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2018年10月23日 03:20:22来源:兰州晨报


  • Russia is finding that empire building can be a painful business. 俄罗斯正发现,建立帝国是一件痛苦的事情。The economy was aly slipping before the whole Ukrainian crisis hit. Now its being battered even more. A weakening currency has pushed up inflation, triggering yet another central bank rate hike. At the same time sanctions, sharply tightening credit conditions and capital outflows are pushing Russia into recession. 相关阅读专题:乌克兰危机在乌克兰危机全面爆发前,俄罗斯经济就已处在滑坡中,目前的情形更是雪上加霜。卢布的不断走软推升了俄罗斯通货膨胀,促使该国央行再度加息。与此同时,西方国家实施的制裁、信贷条件的大幅收紧以及资本的外流正将俄罗斯推向衰退深渊。Standard amp; Poors cut Russias credit rating to one notch above junk on Friday morning citing concerns about capital outflows. The ruble, which had aly been suffering with other emerging market currencies on the global liquidity implications about the Federal Reserves decision to trim its asset purchase program, started losing ground heavily once Ukrainian tensions bubbled up earlier this year. Russians involvement--its annexation of Crimea and the threat of doing the same with Ukraines Russian-speaking east and south--triggered western sanctions. These, in turn, accelerated domestic nervousness about the economy, speeding capital flight. 标准普尔(Standard amp; Poors)周五以担忧资本外流为由将俄罗斯信用评级下调至仅较垃圾级高一档的水平。美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve)收缩资产购买计划的决定对全球流动性的影响已经令卢布等新兴市场货币承压,而在今年早些时候乌克兰紧张局势升级后,卢布更是开始大幅走低。俄罗斯对克里米亚的吞并以及对乌克兰其他俄罗斯族裔聚集地区的虎视眈眈已促使西方对其实施制裁。这进而又加重了俄罗斯国内民众对本国经济的不安,加剧了资本外流。The Russian central bank responded by putting up its key interest rate to 7% from 5.5% in March, in what was originally meant to be a temporary measure, to be unwound by the summer. But on Friday it hiked again, to 7.5%, and made clear higher rates were no longer temporary. 为抑制资本流出,俄罗斯央行在今年3月份将基准利率由5.5%上调%。这原本应是一项临时性举措,按计划会在夏季结束前解除。但周五,该行再度加息,将利率调高至7.5%,同时明确表示加息不再是临时之举。这将成为已举步维艰的俄罗斯经济面临的一个严重问题。Thatll be a significant problem for an economy aly struggling to grow. Between 2000 and the financial crisis, the Russian economy expanded an average of 7% a year. It rebounded smartly after a hefty decline in 2008, but by 2013, it only grew 1.3%. And it appears to have contracted in the first quarter, according to estimates by Capital Economics, a London-based consultancy. Russias manufacturing purchasing managers index pointed to contraction for the fifth successive month in April, while the composite index, which includes both services and manufacturing dropped to a 58-month low. 2000年至金融危机爆发前,俄罗斯经济年均增长率%。在2008年经济增速急剧放缓后曾大幅反弹,但2013年仅增长1.3%。据伦敦咨询机构凯投宏观(Capital Economics)预测,第一季度俄罗斯经济有所萎缩月份俄罗斯制造业采购经理人指PMI)连续第五个月显示行业活动收缩,与此同时,包括务业和制造业的综合PMI降至58个月低点。Coupled with expectations Russia will be further isolated on the international state, with the possibility of more and wider sanctions, its no wonder capital outflows are accelerating. The Russian central bank estimates outflows of more than billion during the first three months of the year, the largest quarterly total since the depth of the financial crisis. 再考虑到西方可能对俄罗斯实施更多、更广泛的制裁,从而使后者在国际上进一步被孤立,资本流出俄罗斯的速度无疑会加快。俄罗斯央行估计,今年第一季度资本流出该国的规模超00亿美元,为金融危机高峰以来资本外流规模最大的一个季度。This outflow has registered in Russias asset markets--Russian equities are down some 22% in dollar terms since the start of the year. 资本外流的影响已经在俄罗斯资产市场得到体现。以美元计算,俄罗斯股市今年以来累计下跌2%。Theres a complex, symbiotic relationship between Russian President Vladimir Putin and the countrys oligarchs. He might be their patron and protector. But as they find their wealth and privileges eroded by sanctions, Mr. Putin could yet find himself thrown into the position of Englands King John facing the barons at Runnymede, where the kings once unlimited powers were curtailed by the Magna Carta. Alternatively, Russia could slip further into Soviet-style repression. 俄罗斯总统普京(Vladimir Putin)与该国政治寡头之间存在复杂的共生关系。普京可能是这些政治寡头的保护者。不过,随着这些政治寡头发现自己的财富和特权被制裁举措侵蚀,普京可能面临当初英国国王约John)在兰尼米德遇到的局面,约翰在当地迫于贵族的压力签署了《大宪章Magna Carta),使自身曾经巨大无比的权力受到限制。但也可能出现的另一种情况是,俄罗斯进一步转向苏联时期那种高压管制模式。来 /201404/292164
  • BEIJING(Reuters) - A city in Chinas restive western region of Xinjiang has bannedpeople with head scarves, veils and long beards from boarding buses, as thegovernment battles unrest with a policy that critics said discriminates againstMuslims.北京(路透社)——为了安全起见,新疆一城市禁止戴头巾、面纱和留长胡子的人上公交车,而有批评家认为这是对穆斯林的歧视。Authoritieswill prohibit five types of passengers - those who wear veils, head scarves, aloose-fitting garment called a jilbab, clothing with the crescent moon andstar, and those with long beards - from boarding buses in the northwestern cityof Karamay, state media said.国家媒体报道说,克拉玛依当局将禁种人上车——戴面纱的,戴头巾的,穿穆斯林长袍的,穿新月和星星饰的,留长胡子的。Thecrescent moon and star symbol of Islam features on many national flags, besidesbeing used by groups China says want to set up an independent state called EastTurkestan.伊斯兰新月和星星标志出现在很多国家的国旗上,中国说境内也有些组织想利用这种标志来建立独立的国家——东突。来 /201408/318983
  • Military strategy outlined军事战略白皮书首发布China issued its first white paper on military strategy on Tuesday.26日,中国发布首份阐述军事战略的白皮书,It reaffirmed Chinas adherence to peaceful development and its ;active defense; military strategy.重申将坚持走和平发展的道路,并采取积极防御的战略思想;China will never seek hegemony or expansion,; it said.白皮书称;中国永远不争霸,不称霸,绝不搞战略扩张;For the first time, the paper noted that ;some offshore neighbors take provocative actions and reinforce their military presence on Chinas reefs and islands that they have illegally occupied;, and it is thus a long-standing task for China to safeguard its maritime rights and interests.白皮书首次指出:;个别海上邻国采取挑衅性举动,在非占据的中方岛礁上加强军事存在; 因此,维护中国的海洋权益将是一项长期任务。The paper said the navy of the Peoples Liberation Army will ;gradually shift its focus from offshore waters defense to a combination of offshore waters defense and open seas protection;.白皮书称,中国海军将逐步实现由近海防御型向近海防御与远海护卫型结合的转变。The paper also mentioned space, cyber space and other key secuirty areas.白皮书内容还涉及太空、网络空间等重大安全领域。来 /201505/377522
  • On May 13 1939 the SS St Louis, a German ocean liner, set sail from Hamburg. On board were 915 Jewish refugees hoping to escape gathering oppression in Europe. There were dances and concerts aboard the luxury vessel and the indulgent captain permitted passengers to throw a tablecloth over an offending bust of Adolf Hitler. Two weeks later, the ship dropped anchor in Havana, pending what passengers, who had purchased Cuban visas, fully expected to be a warm reception. It was not to be. The Cuban authorities turned them away as, subsequently, did those of the US and Canada. The St Louis was obliged to return to Europe. An estimated quarter of its passengers ended up perishing in Nazi concentration camps.19393日,德国远洋班轮“圣路易斯号SS St Louis)从汉堡起航。船上有915名犹太难民,他们希望逃离欧洲日益逼近的迫害。这艘豪华客轮上频频举办舞会和音乐会,宽宏大量的船长还允许乘客在令人不悦的阿道夫#8226;希特Adolf Hitler)半身像上盖上桌布。两周后,该船抵达古巴哈瓦那,已经购买了古巴签的乘客们满心期待着热情的接待。结果并非如此。古巴当局拒绝他们入境,后来美国和加拿大有关部门也作出同样的决定。圣路易斯号被迫返回欧洲。据估计,其1/4的乘客最后死于纳粹集中营。The St Louis story is served up as a shameful indictment of our forefathers. Yet 75 years later, something just as grotesque is playing out on the azure waters of the Andaman Sea (not to mention the Mediterranean). In the past few weeks, at least 6,000 refugees have been cut adrift in the ocean, refused entry by Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia. Some 300 have died this year, according to the UN. Dehydrated, emaciated and desperate, unless the situation changes rapidly, many more lives will be lost.圣路易斯号的故事是对我们的祖先的指控,令人愧疚。然6年后的今天,同样令人匪夷所思的事发生在湛蓝的安达曼Andaman Sea),且不提地中海了。过去几周,至少6000名难民在海上随波逐流,被泰国、马来西亚和印尼拒绝入境。据联合UN)称,今年已有00个难民死亡。尚存的难民们脱水、虚弱、绝望,除非形势迅速出现转变,否则将有更多人死亡。For the Rohingya, the bulk of the refugees, there are echoes of the treatment of Jews in Europe. Many are fleeing refugee centres that have been compared to concentration camps. They are a Muslim minority in Myanmar and Bangladesh. In March the Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide sent a mission to Myanmar, where up to 1m Rohingya live in Rakhine state. It found they had been “subject to dehumanisation through rampant hate speech, the denial of citizenship, and restrictions on freedom of movement Its report concluded that the Rohingya, at least 170 of whom died in mob violence in 2012, were at “grave risk of additional mass atrocities and even genocide大多数难民都是罗兴亚Rohingya),他们的遭遇令人联想起当年欧洲的犹太人。很多难民是从被比作集中营的难民中心逃出来的。他们是生活在缅甸和孟加拉国的一个穆斯林少数民族。今月,Simon-Skjodt防止种族灭绝中心(Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide)向缅甸派出一个代表团,缅甸的若开Rakhine)居住着多达100万的罗兴亚人。该中心发现,他们“遭受着非人化待遇,包括猖獗的仇恨言论、得不到公民身份、迁徙自由受到限制”。该组织的报告得出结论认为,2012年至少有170人死于群体性暴力事件的罗兴亚人,面临着“更多大规模暴行甚至种族屠杀的严重风险”。This conclusion may be premature. As Richard Horsey, a political analyst, points out, an organisation whose raison d’être is the prevention of genocide will tend to see things through that lens. Still, the conditions of the Rohingya most of whom are denied citizenship by both Myanmar and Bangladesh are deplorable and getting worse.这个结论可能下得太早。正如政治分析人士理查德#8226;霍西(Richard Horsey)所指出的,以防止种族灭绝为存在理由的组织,总会倾向于透过那样的棱镜看问题。话虽如此,罗兴亚人的处境——他们中的多数人得不到缅甸和孟加拉国公民身份——是悲惨的,而且正变得更糟。Who are the Rohingya? Like any ethnically charged question, that is fiercely disputed. To the Buddhists who are the majority in Rakhine state, the dark-skinned Rohingya are interlopers from Bangladesh, referred to pejoratively as “Bengalis The Rakhine, who have a proud history of independence, are themselves a persecuted minority. Rohingya trace their origins in Rakhine back to the 15th century. Many others arrived in the British colonial period from 1825 when both Rakhine and Bengal were part of British India. In the second world war, the Rohingya fought with the British, while the Rakhine supported the Japanese who were fleetingly regarded as liberators. Bitterness from that period has lasted until this day.谁是罗兴亚人?就像所有涉及种族的问题那样,这个问题也存在极大争议。对于在若开州占人口多数的佛教徒来说,皮肤黝黑的罗兴亚人是来自孟加拉国的外来者,他们轻蔑地称罗兴亚人为“孟加拉人Bengalis)。若开人对自己的独立史引以为豪,他们本身也是受迫害的少数民族。罗兴亚人在若开的起源可追溯5世纪。还有很多罗兴亚人在始于1825年的英国殖民时期来到若开,那时若开和孟加拉都是英属印度的一部分。二战时期,罗兴亚人与英国人并肩战斗,而若开人则持曾被短暂视为解放者的日本人。那个时期的仇恨延续至今。Anti-Rohingya and anti-Muslim sentiment more generally has hardened since 2010, when the generals who had run Myanmar for decades slowly lifted their oppressive boot. More free speech has meant more hate speech, much of it directed at Muslims. In April, the government withdrew temporary identity cards after a backlash from Buddhists who did not want the Rohingya to vote. Now, without an official identity, most Rohingya are even more exposed to arbitrary arrest and curbs on movement that imperil their ability to make a living. The sense of hopelessness has pushed increasing numbers to flee.010年统治缅甸数十年的将军们开始逐渐放松铁腕统治以来,反罗兴亚和反穆斯林情绪普遍抬头。更多的自由言论意味着更多的仇恨言论,其中很多都针对穆斯林。今月,政府收回了罗兴亚人的临时身份,原因是不希望罗兴亚人拥有投票权的佛教徒发起抗议。如今,在没有官方身份的情况下,多数罗兴亚人更容易受到任意逮捕和限制行动,危及他们的谋生能力。绝望的感觉推动越来越多的罗兴亚人逃离缅甸。The boats on which the Rohingya have escaped offer no dances or on-board entertainment. Now, cut adrift at sea, like the Jews on board the St Louis, the Rohingya have been refused entry to potential safe havens although Malaysia and Indonesia have announced an offer of temporary shelter. With smuggling routes cut off at least for the time being it ought to be a relatively simple matter to rescue the 6,000 or so refugees still at sea and to find them a home.罗兴亚人的船上显然没有舞会和船上活动。如今,在海上随波逐流的罗兴亚人就像当年圣路易斯号上的犹太人一样,被拒绝进入潜在的安全港——尽管马来西亚和印尼已宣布提供临时庇护。在偷渡路径被切断的情况下——至少现在是这样——解000来名仍在海上漂流的难民并安置他们,应该是相对简单的事。That, of course, leaves the more intractable problem of whether Myanmar can reverse its blatantly discriminatory policies. When even Aung San Suu Kyi, the country’s democratic icon, hesitates to use the term Rohingya for fear of offending her Buddhist constituents, there seems little prospect of that. Yet if nothing is done to alleviate the suffering of this blighted minority, comparisons with the Jews of 1930s Europe will look evermore apt.当然,还有一个更加棘手的难题:缅甸能否扭转其公然歧视性的政策?就连该国的民主偶像昂山素季(Aung San Suu Kyi)也犹豫着不敢使用罗兴亚一词,担心这会冒犯她的佛教徒持者,有鉴于此,这一点看起来希望渺茫。但是,如果不能有所作为、为这个遭受摧残的少数民族减轻苦难的话,930年代欧洲犹太人的遭遇进行对比将越来越贴切。来 /201505/376852
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